2008年7月6日 星期日

易受傷的華爾街巨鯊
Vulnerable and Insecure Gross

全球最大基金操盤手 - 威廉‧H‧葛洛斯,為人內向,內心卻無比好強,這股強烈要贏的慾望,讓他專注做好每一件事。他的好友 MSN Money 財經作家提摩西形容葛洛斯:嚴格而專注的自我要求。

他在拉斯維加斯利用 21 點的經驗,建立起一套評估未來事件的機率,也成為他後來投資策略的主軸:「用長期觀點打敗人性中的貪與怕」,他說「把注意力集中在未來三到五年,建立起長期布局,同時也幫助你降低在進行投資決定時,產生的貪與怕」,「當機率有利於你時,要下大注」,「記得兩件事:一、別為小事抓狂;二、全都是小事。」凡常陷入瑣碎小事泥沼中的人,不可避免總是當輸家。

提早布局,每次都讓葛洛斯大有斬獲,他回憶每次大賺,都是遵守李佛摩所說:「大錢不是在買進或賣出時賺到的,真正的大錢總是在等待時賺來的」。2006年率先看出次及房貸風波,決定砍掉、不再買進次貸商品。熬過九個月同業訕笑、媒體奚落,於 2007 下半年,次貸風暴爆發,美股大跌,市場才証明葛洛斯是對的。九個月!關鍵只是在於:誰能戰勝自己。

李佛摩?葛洛斯尊崇的不是大家幾近乎膜拜的巴菲特,而是股市中未曾聽說過的李佛摩。馬上去誠品書局找到寰宇出版社的《傑西‧李佛摩股市操盤術》,揭露他本人研究出之操盤術,交易時機、技巧、和訣竅。相信建基於巴菲特的投資觀念,輔以葛洛斯及李佛摩的技巧,必能於 life 2.0 投資立於不敗之地。


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William H. Gross, founder and CIO of PIMCO (The Pacific Investment Management Company), the largest bond fund management company. He is introversive, though with strong internal drive to win. That willingness to win, make his focus on everthing he does and does it well. According to his friend working at MSN Money as finance columnist, Timothy Middleton, he describes Gross as tough, focus and self demanding.

Inspired by California University professor Edward O. Thorp's book "Beat the Dealer", Gross wend to Las Vegas and practised on Black Jack to build his investment philosophy : "Use long term view to beat human weakness of greediness and fearness.""When the probability is standing at your side, make big bets." An old friend of Gross told him "Remember two things: first, don't be annoyed by minor issue; second, every issue is minor." For those who sinks into trivial issues everyday are always losers.

Early investment make Gross a big fortune. He always follows what Jesse Livermore said : "Big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was always made in the waiting." In 2006, Gross decided to cut and sell sub-prime products, and suffered for nine months under-performing and the mock from peers and media before sub-prime crisis bust in 2nd half 2007 to prove Gross was right. Nine months, the key is who can beat himself human weakness.

Who is Livermore? It is not Buffett who Gross worships, but Livermore. A guy I have ever heard of since I invested in the stock market for more than 20 years. No wonder my track record is poor. I went to Eslite book store and found the book "How to Trade in Stocks - The Classic Formula for Understanding Timing, Money Management, and Emotional Control" by Jesse Livermore, published by McGraw Hill. I believe in Buffett's investment philosophy and assisted by technics from Gross and Livermore will make my investment successful for my life 2.0 before retirement.

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